Chocolate lovers may have to brace for another round of price hikes, as lingering effects from record-high cocoa prices continue to ripple through the retail sector. Yet a glimmer of relief could arrive just in time for next Easter.
Global cocoa markets have been on a wild ride in recent years, with extreme weather, pest outbreaks, and tight supplies from West Africa—the source of roughly three-quarters of the world’s cocoa—pushing prices to unprecedented highs.
The impact on consumers has been stark. In the U.K., chocolate was the grocery category with the steepest annual inflation in 2024, rising 11%, according to consumer group Which?. Across the Atlantic, U.S. prices for popular treats like Hershey’s Kisses jumped about 12% year-over-year.
Despite a slight easing this year—cocoa futures have fallen from $8,177 per metric ton in January to roughly $7,855 in August, compared with $2,374 three years ago—the decline won’t immediately translate into cheaper chocolate for shoppers.
“There’s a bit of a hangover from last year,” said Tracey Allen, agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan. “Cocoa prices spiked in late 2024, and the industry is still feeling that lag. Higher costs are being passed along to consumers.”
Swiss chocolate giant Lindt & Sprüngli echoed the sentiment. Head Adalbert Lechner told CNBC in April he doubts cocoa prices will ever return to their previous levels. The Swiss association Chocosuisse added that quadrupled cocoa prices over the past two years have squeezed margins across the industry, from artisanal makers to global exporters.
Yet there may be a sweet spot on the horizon. Industrial demand is softening just as supply begins to recover, with better weather and new plantings in Ecuador and Brazil reaching maturity. Analysts at J.P. Morgan suggest cocoa prices could stabilize around $6,000 per metric ton, structurally higher than historical averages but offering hope of relief for consumers in time for Easter.
Still, long-term challenges remain. Diseases, underinvestment in West Africa, minimum wage hikes in the U.K., and potential U.S. tariffs mean chocolate prices are likely to stay elevated for the foreseeable future. Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, warned: “Even with improving conditions, supply constraints and global costs will keep chocolate pricey for some time.”
For now, chocolate lovers will need to savor their sweet treats a little more carefully—and perhaps look forward to a slightly sweeter Easter.
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