It may only be the first weeks of fall, but by some measures, the holidays have already arrived. At my local Costco outside Princeton, N.J., shoppers are dodging pallets of pre-lit Christmas trees, oversized wreaths, rolls of wrapping paper, and even a coveted nativity set—with staff warning that some items are already selling out.
This isn’t just about festive enthusiasm. Many consumers started hunting for holiday deals as early as July, timing their purchases around Amazon’s Prime Day and other summer sales. “Shoppers are trying to get ahead of rising costs,” explained Brian McCarthy, a principal at Deloitte Consulting. “Concerns over inflation and new tariffs are motivating earlier holiday spending.”
A Slower but Steady Season
According to Deloitte’s latest retail outlook, Americans will spend between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion this holiday season—about 3% more than last year, though growth will be slower than 2024’s 4.2% increase. The real star, however, is e-commerce, projected to climb 7% to 9% year-over-year, giving retailers another reason to lean into online deals and digital-first promotions.
“We expect this holiday season to highlight consumer resiliency, even against a backdrop of economic uncertainty,” said Natalie Martini, Deloitte’s vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader.
Shoppers Brace for Higher Costs
Not everyone is brimming with holiday cheer. A Bankrate survey found 41% of consumers worry gifts will cost more this year, and 30% expect to spend less overall. Another PwC poll revealed average planned spending of $1,552 on gifts, travel, and entertainment, down about 5% from last year.
Still, nearly half of shoppers—49%—say they’ll have started their holiday shopping before Halloween. For deal hunters, that may pay off: “Retailers will need to dangle discounts to keep cautious consumers spending,” noted Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “Expect meaningful deals rolling out as early as October and lasting through Christmas.”
Tariffs: Less Impact Than Expected
While President Trump’s tariff agenda has raised alarm bells, analysts suggest the effect on this year’s holiday goods will be muted. Much of the merchandise was ordered months ago, before tariffs kicked in, or is already in transit.
“Buyers placed holiday orders earlier this year, locking in pre-tariff pricing,” McCarthy said. Rossman added that the delay “largely insulates the 2025 holiday season from price shocks, though this won’t necessarily hold in future years.”
At Costco, a 7.5-foot pre-lit Christmas tree remains steady at $459.99, the same as last year—a sign that, at least for now, retailers are eating more of the costs than consumers.
How long that cushion lasts is another story. As Rossman put it: “Retailers are absorbing more of the hit than expected, although this might not last forever.”
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