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  • Fed Gets Breathing Room: Surprise Drop in Wholesale Prices Clears Path for Rate Cut

    Fed Gets Breathing Room: Surprise Drop in Wholesale Prices Clears Path for Rate Cut

    Wholesale inflation unexpectedly cooled in August, offering the Federal Reserve fresh room to maneuver as it prepares for its most closely watched interest rate decision of the year.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the producer price index (PPI)—a key measure of input costs across industries—fell 0.1% for the month. That’s a sharp reversal from July’s upwardly revised 0.7% increase, and far below Wall Street’s forecast of a 0.3% rise. On an annual basis, PPI still showed a 2.6% increase, but the monthly dip was enough to calm fears of persistent inflation.

    The core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also slipped 0.1%, defying expectations of another monthly gain. A deeper look showed services prices dragging the index lower, with margins for machinery and vehicle wholesalers plunging nearly 4%. Goods prices ticked higher by just 0.1%, a modest move led by food and energy fluctuations.

    Markets rallied on the news: stock futures jumped while Treasury yields softened. Futures traders now place a 100% probability on the Fed delivering its first rate cut since December 2024, with a slim but rising chance of a deeper half-point cut, according to CME FedWatch data.

    “This is the inflation shock that never happened,” quipped Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds. “At the producer level, inflation barely has a heartbeat. There’s almost nothing to stop the Fed from cutting rates now.”

    Tariffs, Trump, and the Fed’s Balancing Act

    The data complicates the narrative around President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which critics feared would stoke price pressures. Tobacco products—tariff-sensitive goods—did jump 2.3%, but broader inflationary spillovers have yet to materialize.

    Trump has loudly pressed the Fed for rate cuts, arguing that tariffs won’t fuel inflation and that lower borrowing costs are essential for both economic growth and managing the swelling national debt. The White House’s pressure campaign comes as the Fed is increasingly focused on another problem: a weakening job market.

    Just a day earlier, the BLS revealed that the U.S. economy created nearly 1 million fewer jobs in the year through March 2025 than previously reported. That revision rattled confidence in the labor market, which Fed officials had repeatedly described as “solid.”

    What’s Next

    The Fed meets next week for a pivotal session that will not only determine whether rates come down but also set the tone for its longer-term strategy. Policymakers will update their economic outlook, giving investors fresh clues about how far and how fast the Fed is prepared to ease.

    For now, Wall Street is betting the August dip in wholesale prices gives the central bank all the cover it needs to finally pivot.

  • Uber Eats Teams Up With Fintech Pipe to Give Restaurants Faster, Easier Access to Capital

    Uber Eats Teams Up With Fintech Pipe to Give Restaurants Faster, Easier Access to Capital

    Small restaurants struggling to secure traditional loans may soon find relief directly inside the Uber Eats app.

    Fintech firm Pipe has struck a partnership with Uber Eats to make capital more accessible for thousands of restaurants across the U.S., CNBC has learned. Beginning this week, eligible restaurants using the Uber Eats Manager dashboard will see pre-approved funding offers tailored to their revenue and cash flow, powered by Pipe’s embedded financing technology.

    No Credit Checks, No Hassle

    Unlike traditional bank loans that require credit checks, FICO scores, or personal guarantees, Pipe’s process skips the usual hurdles. Instead, the company uses AI to analyze six months of anonymous credit card transaction history provided by Uber. With that data, Pipe calculates how much capital each restaurant can access — with 98% of applications approved and funds often arriving within 24 hours.

    “The No. 1 pain point for small businesses is access to capital, and in the restaurant space, it’s even more acute,” said Pipe CEO Luke Voiles. “This is about helping an immigrant owner with no FICO score get financing for the first time, maybe open a second location, and double their business.”

    Flexible Funding Built for Restaurants

    Unlike fixed-term loans, Pipe’s model allows repayment to adjust with revenue flow. That means when business is slower, restaurants won’t be squeezed by rigid monthly payments. “We’ve seen businesses grow 12% month over month with this kind of flexible access to capital,” Voiles noted.

    Why Uber Chose Pipe

    Karl Hebert, Uber’s vice president of global commerce and financial services, said Pipe’s small-business-friendly approach made the company an ideal partner.

    “Uber is focused on helping restaurant partners be successful,” Hebert explained. “This integration meets restaurant owners where they already are — in the Uber Eats Manager app.”

    Uber has experimented with financial support for its restaurant partners before. In 2022, the company teamed up with Visa to provide $1 million in grants to restaurants affected by the pandemic and natural disasters. But this new partnership goes further by embedding capital access directly into the tools restaurants use every day.

    A Seamless Future for Small Business Financing

    Voiles said the goal is to make the process so intuitive that restaurant owners don’t even realize a third party is involved. “It’s an alignment of wanting to help these small businesses succeed and building something seamless enough to make that happen,” he said.

    With Pipe now valued at $2 billion, this partnership could mark a pivotal moment for the fintech — and for thousands of small restaurants eager to grow without being weighed down by traditional lending barriers.

  • Wells Fargo CEO Warns of Growing Divide Between Affluent and Struggling Americans

    Wells Fargo CEO Warns of Growing Divide Between Affluent and Struggling Americans

    Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf says the U.S. economy is sending “mixed signals,” with wealthier households and corporations thriving while lower-income Americans face mounting financial strain.

    In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Wednesday, Scharf described a sharp contrast across the wealth spectrum.

    “Companies are in really great shape,” he said, citing steady corporate spending and healthy debt repayment across income levels. “But there is this big dichotomy between higher-income and lower-income consumers which continues and is a real issue.”

    According to Scharf, affluent households continue to spend with confidence, while those at the lower end of the income scale are “living on the edge.” Many lower earners have already burned through pandemic-era savings, leaving account balances below pre-2020 levels.

    A cooling labor market adds pressure

    Scharf’s remarks came a day after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon pointed to weakening labor conditions, citing a U.S. Labor Department revision that slashed job creation estimates by 911,000 positions for the year through March.

    “When you look at just the overall data in terms of jobs, it’s undeniable,” Scharf said. “Things actually feel very good today, relative to what you think they could be. But it’s not equal across wealth spectrums, and there’s probably more downside than upside.”

    Strong markets, but lingering uncertainty

    Despite near-record highs in U.S. stock indexes, executives and investors remain cautious, balancing optimism with concerns over persistent inflation and sluggish hiring in the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term.

    Scharf noted that middle-market CEOs broadly support Trump’s push to address trade imbalances through tariffs, but acknowledged that those duties may be weighing on job creation.

    “They’re willing to deal with the uncertainty, but they need to react to that,” he said. “So part of that is just being very prudent in how they’re hiring. That certainly seems to be dampening the increase in jobs.”

  • Who Really Gets Trump’s “No Tax on Tips” Break? The Rules Aren’t as Simple as They Look

    Who Really Gets Trump’s “No Tax on Tips” Break? The Rules Aren’t as Simple as They Look

    When the U.S. Treasury released its preliminary list of 68 tipped occupations in August, many workers cheered, thinking they’d soon cash in on President Donald Trump’s newly enacted “no tax on tips” provision. But experts warn the reality may be more complicated than it seems.

    The tax break—passed as part of Republicans’ so-called “big beautiful bill” in July—lets eligible workers deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips annually from 2025 through 2028. The benefit phases out once modified adjusted gross income climbs above $150,000.

    On paper, the Treasury’s list covers jobs that “customarily and regularly received tips” before the end of 2024. But a second filter could keep some workers from qualifying: the rules barring certain “specified service trades or businesses” (SSTBs) from the deduction. These SSTBs—first defined in Trump’s 2017 tax law—include fields like healthcare, financial services, legal professions, and the performing arts.

    The Hidden Catch

    That second test means not every tipped job on Treasury’s list will qualify. “A lot of people will be surprised to find out that not every single occupation…is actually going to be eligible,” said Ben Henry-Moreland, a certified financial planner with Kitces.com.

    Tax pros note the final rules could come down to context: how a person is employed and who they work for.

    • Same role, different outcomes. A self-employed esthetician may qualify for the tax break since they aren’t providing medical services. But if the same esthetician works inside a dermatology office, their tips would likely be disqualified because they’re part of a healthcare SSTB.
    • Performers face gray zones. A lounge singer hustling solo as a contractor could be blocked under the “performing arts” SSTB. Yet that same singer, if employed by a casino or restaurant, might get the deduction because the employer isn’t classified as an SSTB.

    “It’s not going to be as clear-cut as people think,” said Thomas Gorczynski, a Tempe, Arizona-based enrolled agent. “The key will be how Treasury structures the regulations to navigate these complexities.”

    Waiting for Clarity

    The Treasury must finalize its occupation list by October 2, and tax professionals expect further guidance on how SSTB restrictions will be applied. For now, the uncertainty leaves many tipped workers unsure whether they’ll truly benefit.

    One thing is certain: this tax break, marketed as a straightforward win for service workers, may end up drawing some complicated lines—dividing who qualifies and who doesn’t, even within the same occupation.

  • What to Do About Your Student Loans If You’re Out of Work

    What to Do About Your Student Loans If You’re Out of Work

    Losing a job is stressful enough — but if you’re one of the 40 million Americans with student debt, the weight of monthly payments can make unemployment feel even heavier.

    The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics offered little comfort: just 22,000 jobs were added in August, far short of expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years.

    “The slowdown in job creation might make some recent college graduates and borrowers worried,” said higher education analyst Mark Kantrowitz.

    With more than $1.6 trillion in outstanding student loan debt, millions are wondering how to keep up with payments during a rough patch. Experts say there are options — but knowing the right ones can make all the difference.


    1. Apply for an Income-Driven Repayment Plan

    If you’ve been laid off or your income has taken a hit, federal student loan borrowers may qualify for an income-driven repayment (IDR) plan. These programs tie monthly payments to a percentage of your discretionary income — sometimes lowering them to as little as $0 per month.

    Unemployment benefits are factored into the formula, but IDR payments are still likely far lower than what you’d owe with a steady paycheck. And if your income has recently dropped, you don’t have to wait until next year’s tax filing: you can submit proof of your current earnings instead, said Nancy Nierman of New York’s Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program.


    2. Pause Payments Through Deferment

    Borrowers facing job loss may qualify for an Unemployment Deferment, which allows them to temporarily halt payments while actively seeking work or collecting unemployment benefits. Some loans will still accrue interest during this time, but others won’t.

    There’s also the Economic Hardship Deferment, designed for those receiving public assistance or living on very low incomes. Usage of this option has doubled in just the past year, Kantrowitz noted.

    Both deferment programs typically cap at three years over a borrower’s lifetime. Starting in July 2027, new student loan borrowers won’t have access to these deferments at all, though current borrowers will still qualify.


    3. Consider Forbearance if Deferment Isn’t Available

    If you don’t qualify for deferment, forbearance may be another way to pause payments. But here’s the catch: in most cases, interest will continue to add up, increasing your total balance when repayment restarts. To avoid ballooning debt, experts suggest covering at least the monthly interest if you can.


    4. What If You Have Private Loans?

    Relief options are more limited with private student loans. Still, experts advise being proactive: contact your lender as soon as you lose your job. Many private lenders have hardship programs or temporary payment relief, but you usually need to ask.


    The Bottom Line

    Being unemployed while carrying student loans can feel overwhelming, but you’re not without tools. Whether through an IDR plan, deferment, or a temporary pause from your lender, there are ways to ease the burden until you’re back on your feet.

    “Even if your payment drops to zero, staying in touch with your loan servicer keeps you in good standing — and avoids bigger problems down the line,” said Kantrowitz.

  • Why Your Morning Coffee Costs More: Climate Chaos, Tariffs, and Shrinking Supplies

    Why Your Morning Coffee Costs More: Climate Chaos, Tariffs, and Shrinking Supplies

    Caffeine isn’t the only thing spiking in your cup lately — the price of coffee itself is climbing to record highs.

    In July, U.S. shoppers paid an average of $8.41 per pound for ground roast coffee, a 33% jump from last year and the highest price ever recorded, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Globally, coffee prices are hovering near the half-century peak reached earlier this year.

    Behind the sticker shock: volatile weather, depleted inventories, and new trade policies that are rattling the global coffee market.


    Weather Woes and “Precipitation Whiplash”

    Brazil, which produces about 40% of the world’s coffee, is at the center of the storm. A severe drought last year slashed harvests, followed by intense rainfall that further damaged crops. Analysts call this pattern “precipitation whiplash” — wild swings between too dry and too wet that stress coffee plants and diminish both yield and quality.

    Vietnam, the second-largest producer, has fared no better, with drought cutting production by 20% in 2024 before torrential rains added to the chaos. “Your standard season isn’t as it should be,” said Cornell professor Mike Hoffmann. “The plants are battered, and the beans suffer.”


    Shrinking Stockpiles, Rising Risks

    As prices rose, companies like Starbucks tapped into their existing stockpiles instead of buying costly beans. But inventories are now “significantly below historical levels,” Bernstein analysts noted — making the market more vulnerable to new supply shocks. When supplies are thin, even minor disruptions can trigger major price surges.


    What It Means for Coffee Lovers

    For everyday drinkers, the impact depends on where you buy. Grocery store coffee is closely tied to commodity costs, so prices at the supermarket may swing more sharply than what you’ll see at your local café. Chains like Starbucks can absorb some of the hit, with analysts estimating that even with 50% tariffs on Brazilian beans, menu prices would rise by 0.5% or less.

    Still, over the long term, consumers should expect higher-than-average prices. Climate change is reshaping growing seasons, extreme weather events are becoming more common, and global demand for coffee keeps climbing.

    “The prices will continue to go up, in my mind,” Hoffmann said. “Climate change isn’t going away — and it’s not just coffee, it’s the entire food supply.”

  • Retirement Savers Hit Record Highs as 401(k) and IRA Balances Surge

    Retirement Savers Hit Record Highs as 401(k) and IRA Balances Surge

    After a rocky start to the year, retirement savers are breathing a little easier. New data from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest 401(k) provider, shows that balances rebounded sharply in the second quarter, fueled by both strong market performance and steady saving habits.

    The average 401(k) balance climbed to $137,800, an 8% increase from a year ago and the highest level on record. Meanwhile, the average IRA balance rose 5% year-over-year to $131,366.


    Millionaire Accounts Break Records

    The rebound has minted more retirement millionaires than ever before. Fidelity reported that:

    • The number of 401(k) accounts with $1 million or more jumped 16% from the previous quarter, hitting 595,000.
    • The number of IRA millionaires also rose 16%, reaching a record 501,481.

    “This is a great reminder of the power of consistency,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership. “Savers who continued contributing, even when markets dipped, are now reaping the benefits.”


    Savers Stayed the Course

    Despite the volatility triggered earlier this year by White House tariff announcements — which sent the S&P 500 to some of its worst trading days since the early days of Covid — most retirement savers didn’t panic.

    The average 401(k) contribution rate, which combines employer and employee deposits, held steady at 14.2%, just shy of Fidelity’s recommended 15% target. That discipline, paired with the market rebound, set investors up for record growth.

    As of mid-September:

    • The S&P 500 is up about 10% year-to-date.
    • The Nasdaq has gained more than 11%.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced roughly 6%.

    Long-Term Investors Are Winning

    “Markets have shown remarkable resilience despite volatility,” said Tim Maurer, chief advisory officer at SignatureFD and a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. “And history tells us that any asset class with a positive rate of return will eventually hit new highs.”

    The lesson? For retirement savers, the strategy remains simple but powerful: keep contributing, stay invested, and let the markets do their work over time.

  • U.S. Job Openings Sink to Post-Pandemic Lows, Signaling a Fragile Labor Market

    U.S. Job Openings Sink to Post-Pandemic Lows, Signaling a Fragile Labor Market

    Job openings across the United States fell in July to levels rarely seen since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, stoking fears that the labor market is finally losing steam after years of resilience.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that available positions dropped to 7.18 million, missing Wall Street’s forecast of 7.4 million. The figure marks just the second time since 2020 that openings have dipped below 7.2 million, with the last such drop recorded in September 2024.

    For many economists, this decline is more than a statistical blip—it’s another flashing warning sign.

    “This is a turning point for the labor market,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s yet another crack in the foundation.”

    Long emphasized that the weakness has been building for months, with anecdotal reports already painting a picture of a market where job seekers are finding it harder to land positions.

    The data adds to a growing narrative of a cooling economy, with job postings thinning even as employers remain cautious about cutting staff.

    All eyes now turn to upcoming reports for further confirmation. Weekly jobless claims, due Thursday, will provide a near-term snapshot of layoffs, while Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report could set the tone for how the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves on interest rates.

    For workers, the numbers may translate into longer job searches and fewer opportunities. For policymakers, they present a fresh dilemma: how to balance slowing inflation with the risk of pushing the labor market deeper into a slowdown.

  • Walmart-Backed OnePay Launches $35 Unlimited Wireless Plan, Taking Aim at the ‘Super App’ Future

    Walmart-Backed OnePay Launches $35 Unlimited Wireless Plan, Taking Aim at the ‘Super App’ Future

    OnePay, the fintech startup majority-owned by Walmart, is expanding far beyond digital banking. Starting Wednesday, the company will roll out OnePay Wireless, its own branded mobile service, CNBC has learned.

    Through a partnership with mobile services startup Gigs, OnePay users can now activate a $35-a-month plan that includes unlimited 5G data, talk, and text on AT&T’s nationwide network. The service launches directly inside the OnePay app, requiring just a few clicks — with no credit checks or activation fees.

    Building Toward a U.S. “Super App”

    Launched in 2021 by Walmart and Ribbit Capital, OnePay has been steadily expanding its ecosystem to resemble “super apps” popular in Asia, such as WeChat or Alipay. Today, its services already span credit and debit cards, high-yield savings accounts, buy-now-pay-later loans, and peer-to-peer payments. Wireless connectivity is the latest piece of the puzzle.

    Other fintech firms, including Klarna and Nubank, have also begun offering mobile plans — signaling a trend where financial platforms blur into telecommunications.

    Cutting Bills, Winning Customers

    The move could be a win-win for both consumers and carriers. “The average consumer largely overpays for their phone bill,” said Hermann Frank, CEO of Gigs. “We can now offer a product at a price point that’s about half of what the typical consumer pays, with all the modern features you’d expect.”

    By embedding mobile plans into apps people already use daily, AT&T can slash its customer acquisition costs — savings that trickle down into more affordable plans.

    A Pipeline of Wireless-Enabled Apps

    AT&T and Gigs revealed a “growing pipeline” of U.S. companies planning to launch similar app-based wireless plans. These firms typically earn a share of the revenue, making it an attractive add-on to their platforms.

    “The future is one where consumers can buy and manage their cellular plans from any number of personal or workplace apps they use every day,” said William Traylor, AT&T’s vice president of emerging business – platforms & partnerships.

    With Walmart’s reach and OnePay’s ambition, OnePay Wireless isn’t just another budget phone plan — it’s a step toward turning your financial app into the hub for your entire digital life.

  • Denmark Cuts Growth Forecast as Novo Nordisk Faces Pressure from U.S. Tariffs and Weight-Loss Drug Competition

    Denmark Cuts Growth Forecast as Novo Nordisk Faces Pressure from U.S. Tariffs and Weight-Loss Drug Competition

    Denmark’s economic boom is losing momentum. On Friday, the government slashed its 2025 growth outlook to 1.4% from 3%, pointing to a weaker performance by pharmaceutical powerhouse Novo Nordisk and growing uncertainty from U.S. trade policy.

    The downgrade comes after two years of unusually strong growth, fueled by Denmark’s pharmaceutical exports—most notably Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight-loss drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy. In 2024, those medicines helped push the economy up 3.7%, but the momentum has since cooled.

    According to the economy ministry, Danish exports to the U.S. dropped sharply in early 2025 after a late-2024 surge caused by stockpiling. Competition in the fast-growing weight-loss drug market has eroded Novo’s market share, while cheaper generic alternatives have started to eat into sales. As a result, pharmaceuticals are now expected to add just 1.3 percentage points to Denmark’s goods exports this year, compared with 8.1 points in 2024. Overall goods export growth is projected to slow to 2.7%, down from 10.5% last year.

    The broader European pharmaceutical sector has also been under pressure from U.S. tariffs, despite some relief from the recent EU-U.S. trade deal. The Danish economy ministry said tariffs and weaker-than-expected first-quarter growth had forced the revision, warning of “a significant degree of unpredictability linked to U.S. policy” that could weigh on business confidence and investment.

    Still, the government stressed that the overall economy remains resilient. Employment is strong, inflation is set to fall below 2%, and growth is expected to rebound to 2.1% in 2026 on the back of higher household spending and public investment.

    Novo Nordisk’s high-stakes battle
    Once Europe’s most valuable company—briefly overtaking luxury giant LVMH during the weight-loss drug boom—Novo Nordisk has since tumbled. Its shares fell more than 10% in 2024 and have plunged over 40% so far this year. Investors remain wary of U.S. rival Eli Lilly’s growing dominance, slower global demand, and questions about Novo’s next-generation treatments.

    Despite market jitters, Novo’s underlying performance remains robust. Earlier this month, the company reported 67% year-on-year sales growth at constant exchange rates, with quarterly revenue of 19.53 billion Danish kroner ($3.03 billion). Executives pledged to ramp up direct-to-consumer sales in the U.S. to fight back against copycat compounders and respond to President Donald Trump’s push for lower drug prices.

    For Denmark, the stakes are clear: the fortunes of its economy remain tightly bound to the pharmaceutical giant’s global battle for market share.