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  • Why Retiring at 58 Sounds Dreamy—But Could Be Riskier Than You Think

    Why Retiring at 58 Sounds Dreamy—But Could Be Riskier Than You Think

    Retiring early is a fantasy many Americans share. The idea of stepping out of the workforce by your late 50s and enjoying decades of freedom sounds idyllic. But experts caution that it’s often far easier said than done.

    When asked what the “ideal” retirement age should be, surveyed Americans gave an average answer of 58, according to a June poll by Empower of 1,001 adults. That’s years earlier than reality: as of 2024, the average retirement age is 64 for men and 62 for women, data from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College shows.

    And even then, many workers don’t retire exactly when they plan. In fact, 58% of Americans leave the workforce earlier than expected, according to a 2024 study by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies. For most, it wasn’t by choice: 46% pointed to health challenges, 43% cited job-related issues, and 20% mentioned family responsibilities. Only 21% said they retired early because they were financially secure.

    The Hidden Costs of Early Retirement

    For those aiming to quit work at 58, the math can get daunting. “You’re potentially looking at 30 to 40 years of not working,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. With Americans living longer, that translates to decades of expenses without employment income.

    “You may end up coming up short or not having enough money if you quit work too early,” McClanahan warned. Recessions, inflation, or unexpected medical costs can erode even well-padded savings.

    Health care is another big obstacle. Medicare eligibility doesn’t begin until age 65, which means anyone who leaves the workforce earlier needs to bridge several years of potentially expensive health coverage on their own.

    The Retirement “Magic Number”

    How much do Americans think they need to retire comfortably? On average, $1.26 million, according to an April report from Northwestern Mutual. That’s actually down from $1.46 million the year before, but it still feels out of reach for many. More than half of those surveyed said they worry they’ll outlive their savings.

    And that concern isn’t far-fetched. T. Rowe Price notes that 2.4 million Americans retired during the pandemic, yet about 1.5 million had returned to work by March 2022. Meanwhile, 52% of workers now say they plan to work at least part-time in retirement, with 80% citing financial necessity.

    Some, however, work not for money but for purpose. “I have clients who technically could retire, but they still put in a few hours a week at jobs that aren’t demanding,” said Gloria Garcia Cisneros, a certified financial planner at LourdMurray. “We don’t just turn off and then live half of our life doing nothing.”

    Why Working Longer Can Pay Off

    There’s another benefit to staying in the workforce a little longer: delaying Social Security. The later you claim benefits (up to age 70), the larger your monthly checks—and the lower your risk of outliving your money.

    T. Rowe Price researchers ran the numbers for a hypothetical 62-year-old earning $100,000 annually, with $900,000 saved and plans to spend about $65,000 per year in retirement. Retiring at 62 gave them only a 64% chance of not running out of money. Waiting until 65 raised that probability to 92%.

    The Bottom Line
    Early retirement at 58 may sound like freedom, but it comes with steep financial and lifestyle trade-offs. From bridging health care gaps to funding decades of living expenses, the dream requires serious planning—and in most cases, a hefty savings cushion. For many, working just a few more years may be the difference between a comfortable retirement and one filled with financial stress.

  • Chocolate Crunch: Soaring Cocoa Prices Keep Sweet Treats Expensive, But Easter Brings Hope

    Chocolate Crunch: Soaring Cocoa Prices Keep Sweet Treats Expensive, But Easter Brings Hope

    Chocolate lovers may have to brace for another round of price hikes, as lingering effects from record-high cocoa prices continue to ripple through the retail sector. Yet a glimmer of relief could arrive just in time for next Easter.

    Global cocoa markets have been on a wild ride in recent years, with extreme weather, pest outbreaks, and tight supplies from West Africa—the source of roughly three-quarters of the world’s cocoa—pushing prices to unprecedented highs.

    The impact on consumers has been stark. In the U.K., chocolate was the grocery category with the steepest annual inflation in 2024, rising 11%, according to consumer group Which?. Across the Atlantic, U.S. prices for popular treats like Hershey’s Kisses jumped about 12% year-over-year.

    Despite a slight easing this year—cocoa futures have fallen from $8,177 per metric ton in January to roughly $7,855 in August, compared with $2,374 three years ago—the decline won’t immediately translate into cheaper chocolate for shoppers.

    “There’s a bit of a hangover from last year,” said Tracey Allen, agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan. “Cocoa prices spiked in late 2024, and the industry is still feeling that lag. Higher costs are being passed along to consumers.”

    Swiss chocolate giant Lindt & Sprüngli echoed the sentiment. Head Adalbert Lechner told CNBC in April he doubts cocoa prices will ever return to their previous levels. The Swiss association Chocosuisse added that quadrupled cocoa prices over the past two years have squeezed margins across the industry, from artisanal makers to global exporters.

    Yet there may be a sweet spot on the horizon. Industrial demand is softening just as supply begins to recover, with better weather and new plantings in Ecuador and Brazil reaching maturity. Analysts at J.P. Morgan suggest cocoa prices could stabilize around $6,000 per metric ton, structurally higher than historical averages but offering hope of relief for consumers in time for Easter.

    Still, long-term challenges remain. Diseases, underinvestment in West Africa, minimum wage hikes in the U.K., and potential U.S. tariffs mean chocolate prices are likely to stay elevated for the foreseeable future. Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, warned: “Even with improving conditions, supply constraints and global costs will keep chocolate pricey for some time.”

    For now, chocolate lovers will need to savor their sweet treats a little more carefully—and perhaps look forward to a slightly sweeter Easter.

  • Should You Have to Pass a Test to Invest Like the Wealthy? The SEC Might Think So

    Should You Have to Pass a Test to Invest Like the Wealthy? The SEC Might Think So

    Imagine being able to invest in buzzy startups before they go public, or joining in on the high-stakes world of private equity and hedge funds. These opportunities are usually limited to the wealthy, but lawmakers are floating a new idea: if you can’t meet the money threshold, maybe you can prove your knowledge instead.

    The U.S. House of Representatives recently backed a proposal for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to design a knowledge exam that could grant access to “accredited investor” status. In theory, passing the test would show you understand the risks and complexities of private markets, opening the door to investments normally reserved for millionaires.

    But here’s the challenge: most Americans struggle with even basic financial literacy. And experts warn that creating a fair and effective test won’t be easy.

    What It Means to Be an Accredited Investor

    Right now, accreditation is mostly about wealth. To qualify, you need at least $200,000 in annual income (or $300,000 as a couple), or $1 million in net worth excluding your primary home. Those thresholds haven’t budged since the 1980s, even as inflation and rising incomes have expanded the pool of qualifying households.

    There’s also a backdoor for licensed professionals: passing Series 7, 65, or 82 exams automatically qualifies you. But these are exams for financial advisors and brokers, not everyday investors.

    The proposed new route would let knowledge—not just net worth—be the ticket in. The question is: what exactly should be tested?

    Designing the Exam: Easier Said Than Done

    Experts say a meaningful test would have to go beyond definitions and jargon. It would need to cover:

    • The risks of private assets, from limited liquidity to opaque disclosures.
    • The reality that valuations can be subjective and horizons stretch over many years.
    • How to fit alternative investments into a diversified portfolio.

    “Essentially, the test would need to assess whether this person has the knowledge to manage investments without regulatory protections to lean on,” said Yanely Espinal, director of educational outreach at Next Gen Personal Finance.

    That’s not simple. Even seasoned investors can get tripped up by hype. “We’ve been blessed with bull markets and high growth recently, but these things can go down and potentially default,” warned Chelsea Ransom-Cooper, CFP and chief financial planning officer at Zenith Wealth Partners.

    Why It Matters

    The stakes are real. Private-market deals often require large minimum investments—sometimes six figures. Losing just $20,000, for example, would wipe out nearly a quarter of the median U.S. household’s annual income ($80,610), Espinal pointed out.

    Yet the rules don’t always line up logically. Crypto, considered just as risky as private equity, has no accreditation barrier. “You cannot invest in a real company that happens to be private, but you can invest in something equally risky, crypto,” said SEC advisory committee member James Andrus.

    Americans Flunk Basic Finance Tests

    If the SEC rolls out a knowledge exam, expect it to be a hurdle. Just look at existing data: the FINRA Investor Education Foundation runs a seven-question financial literacy quiz. Out of more than 25,000 U.S. adults surveyed in 2024, only 4% got all seven right. Less than half got even four correct.

    Something as basic as “What happens to bond prices when interest rates rise?” stumped most respondents—42% said they didn’t know, and another 33% answered incorrectly. (The answer: prices fall.)

    Even Wealthy Investors Could Use a Test

    The irony is that plenty of accredited investors already lack true understanding. “A lot of people with a lot of money do these deals and have no freaking clue what they’re getting into,” said Rich Diemer, managing director of CAV Angels, a nonprofit angel investing group tied to the University of Virginia.

    Diemer’s group educates members on due diligence, market potential, and the ongoing commitment needed to support startups. “It’s not a one-and-done,” he explained. “It’s about nursing an early-stage company along until VCs take over.”

    For Diemer, a knowledge test could actually open doors—giving smart, younger investors without big bank accounts a fair shot at opportunities currently out of reach.

    The Bottom Line
    A knowledge exam for accredited investors could level the playing field, but it’s a double-edged sword. It might empower financially savvy individuals who aren’t wealthy, but it could also expose those who think they’re ready to risks they don’t fully grasp. Designing such a test is a puzzle regulators still haven’t solved—and whether it truly protects investors remains an open question.

  • Mortgage Rates Are Slipping—Here’s How to Get Ready for a Smart Refinance

    Mortgage Rates Are Slipping—Here’s How to Get Ready for a Smart Refinance

    Mortgage rates have been easing in recent months, dipping to a 10-month low in early August. While rates ticked slightly higher last week—the average 30-year fixed rate inching up to 6.68% from 6.67%, per Mortgage Bankers Association data—many homeowners are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve. If the Fed cuts rates this fall, refinancing could once again become a hot opportunity.

    “Getting the preparation done beforehand will allow you to move quickly,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage site HSH.

    Experts caution that the window to act could be brief. Mortgage rates often move in step with 10-year Treasury yields, which are sensitive to economic shifts. For homeowners with higher-rate loans, being ready before rates drop could mean the difference between saving thousands—or missing the chance entirely.

    When Does Refinancing Make Sense?

    Melissa Cohn, regional VP at William Raveis Mortgage, notes that it’s not enough for rates to drop a little—you need a meaningful difference. A common rule of thumb is at least a half-point (50 basis points) lower than your current rate, said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin.

    “If you’re looking to refinance, especially in this type of interest rate climate, you need to be opportunistic, which means you probably need to move quickly,” added Gumbinger.

    Five Steps to Prep for a Refinance

    1. Review Your Credit Reports
    Pull your reports from Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion via AnnualCreditReport.com. Lenders check all three, so accuracy matters. Spot an error? Dispute it early—fixes can take weeks.

    2. Guard Your Credit Score
    Your score is your golden ticket to better terms. Avoid opening new credit cards, taking on fresh debt, or making late payments. Big purchases you can’t immediately pay off could hurt your score right before you apply.

    3. Check Your Home Equity
    Equity matters. With at least 20% equity, lenders typically offer stronger terms. If you’re unsure where you stand, check recent sales in your neighborhood or talk to a real estate professional.

    4. Gather Essential Documents
    Streamline the process by having paperwork ready:

    • Proof of income, assets, and homeowners insurance
    • Your current mortgage statement
    • Property deed and tax statement
    • Two years of employment history
      Also, set aside funds for upfront costs—expect $300–$500 for an appraisal and under $30 for a credit report.

    5. Research Lenders in Advance
    Don’t wait until the last second. Compare lenders now, learn about their terms, and keep a shortlist handy. Start with your current lender, which may offer a smoother process. Some lenders will even add you to a call list, alerting you when rates hit your target.

    The Bottom Line

    Refinancing isn’t just about timing—it’s about preparation. Rates can shift quickly, and by the time headlines announce a dip, the best deals may already be gone.

    With the Fed’s September meeting looming, experts say the smartest move isn’t waiting—it’s getting your financial house in order now. That way, if the right opportunity comes, you’ll be ready to act.

    “Just make sure there’s a big enough gap to make it worthwhile,” Gumbinger said. And if rates fall even further after you refinance? You can always do it again.

  • Beyond the Tea Leak: Why America Needs a Pluralistic Digital Identity System

    Beyond the Tea Leak: Why America Needs a Pluralistic Digital Identity System

    I had never heard of Tea—an app marketed to women as a place to share information about problematic men—until the headlines hit. First came an unprotected Firebase database spilling personal details. Then, a second breach exposed 1.1 million private messages. Driver’s licenses, selfies, attachments—suddenly torrents of intimate data were scattered across the web.

    Why was an app like Tea hoarding such sensitive information in the first place? The answer lay in its sign-up process, which required users to submit selfies as proof of identity. A familiar story: casual negligence meets structural weakness, and the result is real-world harm. It’s yet another reminder that across both traditional finance and decentralized finance, the absence of a population-scale, privacy-enhancing digital identity system is glaring.

    The Crypto Angle on Digital Identity

    This isn’t just a niche issue. The White House’s recent report, Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology, identifies digital identity as critical infrastructure. It even calls on the Treasury to issue guidance on how financial institutions might integrate digital ID solutions into existing customer verification programs.

    Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) released its own report, describing identity as “layer zero for participating in modern life.” The same report underscores the fractured state of U.S. digital identity and the skyrocketing costs of fraud.

    On the Ethereum side, Vitalik Buterin has proposed an “inclusive” digital identity model—one that avoids the surveillance-prone, one-ID-per-person trap. Instead, he envisions a pluralistic system, where people maintain multiple, pseudonymous identities and prove only what is necessary in any given interaction. Think of it as a privacy-first, cryptographically guaranteed way to participate in digital life without surrendering your soul (and your driver’s license) to every app that asks.

    Biometrics, Zero-Knowledge, and What Good Looks Like

    The Worldcoin project, backed by Sam Altman, takes another tack: using iris biometrics to ensure uniqueness. Instead of hoarding biometric templates, it shards and encrypts them via secure multi-party computation. The result is application-specific IDs that can’t be linked without user consent. Your bank ID and your airline ID stay separate, by design.

    What Buterin and Worldcoin highlight is that good digital identity doesn’t just mean “secure.” It must be pluralistic, privacy-preserving, and flexible. Ideally, you should be able to present a proof of reputation or an attribute (say, “over 18”) without revealing anything else about yourself.

    What Could Have Saved Tea

    Imagine if Tea had built on a pluralistic digital ID system. Instead of storing selfies and driver’s licenses, it would only need to know that “User X is over 18.” That credential could be issued by a bank, a DMV, or even the Treasury. When hackers eventually got in, they would find nothing but pseudonyms linked to non-identifiable credentials—no honeypots of personal data to plunder.

    Why This Matters Now

    Americans shouldn’t have to “balance” security and privacy. We should demand both. And because banks are dragging their feet, it may well be the crypto community that pioneers the infrastructure we desperately need. If it succeeds, the benefits won’t be limited to fintech or DeFi. They’ll ripple across the entire economy.

    Tea’s implosion is a cautionary tale, but it’s also an opportunity. The technology to protect people’s identities already exists. What’s missing is the will to put it into practice—before the next breach proves, yet again, how costly the absence of digital identity really is.

  • Governing AI: Why Boards Must Accelerate From Awareness to Action

    Governing AI: Why Boards Must Accelerate From Awareness to Action

    In just six months, corporate boards have made significant strides in preparing for artificial intelligence (AI). According to the latest edition of Governance of AI: A Critical Imperative for Today’s Boards, the number of organizations saying they are unprepared to deploy AI has dropped from 41% last October to 31% today. Progress is being made—but the work is far from complete.

    From Awareness to Agenda

    AI is appearing more often on board agendas, yet nearly one-third of directors admit their boards still devote too little time to the topic. This misalignment reflects a broader tension: organizations often move at the pace of internal change, while technology moves at breakneck speed. Boards that want to provide effective oversight need to elevate AI on the agenda now, not later.

    A Call for Proactive Engagement

    The latest survey shows nearly 40% of respondents are experimenting with AI—up from about one-third previously. Yet more than half believe their organizations should be moving faster. For boards, this means playing a hands-on role: not only overseeing management’s AI strategy but also pressing for clear processes around risk identification, monitoring, and reporting.

    The single most important factor? Strong communication between boards and management. Directors who actively engage with executive leaders are better positioned to align strategy with execution. Encouragingly, only 8% of respondents reported no board-management engagement on AI, down from 13% last year.

    The Knowledge Gap

    Still, oversight requires fluency. Two-thirds of board members and executives admit to having limited-to-no knowledge of AI. While about half of surveyed organizations now provide foundational AI education to their boards, the other half are leaving directors underprepared.

    Boards must raise their AI IQ. That means more than attending workshops—it means experimenting with AI tools, tracking regulatory developments, and understanding societal implications. Directors cannot rely solely on management or outside consultants; they must become active learners themselves.

    Learning From the Outside In

    At the same time, external perspectives have value. Boards may benefit from adding directors with AI expertise or inviting specialists for targeted sessions. Fresh voices can help boards understand what’s possible, frame governance questions, and surface risks they may not otherwise see. Just as importantly, these perspectives can help boards weigh broader considerations: the ethical use of AI, its impact on employees, and the company’s role in ensuring safe, responsible innovation.

    Building Resilient, AI-Savvy Boards

    AI isn’t a passing trend—it’s a transformative force reshaping industries and societies. To govern effectively, boards must:

    • Accelerate adoption to keep pace with technological change.
    • Strengthen communication with management to ensure strategy translates into outcomes.
    • Invest in education to build AI fluency and informed oversight.
    • Leverage external expertise to challenge assumptions and expand perspectives.

    By committing to these steps, boards can move beyond surface-level awareness and position their organizations to lead with confidence in the age of AI.

  • From Lipstick to Taylor Swift Tickets: Why ‘Treatonomics’ Is Defining Consumer Life in 2025

    From Lipstick to Taylor Swift Tickets: Why ‘Treatonomics’ Is Defining Consumer Life in 2025

    In a world clouded by inflation, high interest rates, and persistent economic uncertainty, consumers are rewriting the rules of spending. Welcome to “Treatonomics” — a cultural and economic phenomenon where small indulgences and life-affirming splurges take center stage as people look for joy in uneasy times.

    The Rise of Everyday Luxuries

    From a $20 lipstick to a $200 concert ticket, spending on “little treats” has become a barometer of consumer mood. The idea is simple: if you can’t afford a new sofa, you buy a decorative throw; if a designer outfit is out of reach, a tube of lipstick or a scented candle can provide the lift you need.

    This is hardly new. Economists have long tracked the “lipstick effect,” first observed during the Great Depression, when consumers under financial strain turned to affordable luxuries. Leonard Lauder, then-chairman of Estée Lauder, famously revived the concept in the 2000s when he noticed lipstick sales spiking after the Sept. 11 attacks.

    But 2025’s “Treatonomics” goes further. Today, consumers are just as likely to cut corners at the grocery store by buying private-label products as they are to splurge on unforgettable experiences — from Beyoncé tickets to high-end dining — that deliver memories and a sense of escape.

    Post-Pandemic Priorities: Experiences Over Things

    The Covid-19 pandemic reshaped what people value. As retail analyst John Stevenson explains:

    “Treatonomics is almost a step beyond the lipstick effect. People are trimming everyday costs but spending £500 to £1,000 on concert weekends, because those experiences feel worth it.”

    It’s not just about concerts. Millennials and Gen Z are fueling the “Kidulting” movement, where nostalgia-driven purchases like LEGO sets (some priced over $1,000) offer comfort and joy. Meanwhile, social rituals are being reimagined: from breakup parties and dog birthdays to “resignation cakes” and diamonds as self-rewards.

    Why Consumers Are Leaning In

    Economists point to a mix of cultural and economic forces driving this shift. Meredith Smith, senior director at Kantar, calls it “the Lipstick Effect on steroids.” With milestones like homeownership, marriage, or early retirement becoming out of reach for many, people are choosing to celebrate “inch-stones” instead — the small wins or simply moments that bring joy.

    “Life milestones are being reinvented or skipped altogether,” Smith notes. “Treatonomics fills that void by injecting everyday life with moments of delight.”

    Confidence Is Shaky, but Spending Endures

    In the U.K., consumer confidence fell in July, while in the U.S. it ticked slightly upward. Still, both remain far below pre-crisis highs, according to The Conference Board. Against this backdrop, Kantar has labeled the current era one of “Great Uncertainty,” predicting turbulence for at least another five years.

    That very uncertainty may explain why “little treat culture” is booming. In a volatile world, small luxuries feel like manageable, guilt-free pleasures — psychological shock absorbers that help people navigate instability.

    The Future of Treatonomics

    Economists expect the trend to stick around for at least the next three to five years, though in ever-evolving forms. Micro-trends will fragment by geography and cultural niches, posing both opportunities and challenges for brands.

    For now, though, the message is clear: whether it’s a lipstick, a LEGO set, or a once-in-a-lifetime concert ticket, consumers are choosing joy where they can find it — and spending their way into moments of happiness.

  • Goldman Sachs Warns: AI Is Already Shaking Up Tech Jobs, With Young Workers Hit the Hardest

    Goldman Sachs Warns: AI Is Already Shaking Up Tech Jobs, With Young Workers Hit the Hardest

    The rise of generative AI is no longer just a future possibility—it’s already leaving fingerprints on the American labor market, according to Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs.

    In a podcast episode shared with CNBC, Briggs said the tech industry is showing the earliest signs of disruption, even though most companies haven’t fully deployed AI in large-scale production yet.

    “For the past two decades, tech employment has grown almost in a straight line as a share of overall jobs,” Briggs explained. “But in the last three years, we’ve seen a reversal—tech hiring has slowed and is now undershooting its long-term trend.”

    Early Displacement: Young Tech Workers on the Frontline

    The data shows the pain point clearly: unemployment among tech employees aged 20 to 30 has surged by three percentage points in 2024, Briggs noted. That spike is far greater than what’s been seen across the broader tech sector—or among young workers in other industries.

    This shift is tied to how generative AI has rapidly proven itself in coding, customer service, and other repetitive tasks. Giants like Alphabet and Microsoft say AI is now generating up to 30% of project code, while Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff recently revealed AI completes about half the work inside his company.

    “Young workers, whose roles are often the easiest to automate, are becoming the first casualties of AI-driven labor substitution,” Briggs said.

    CEOs Push Efficiency Over Hiring

    Tech leaders appear to be tightening hiring pipelines for junior staff as they adopt AI tools. “Companies want to stay lean, nimble, and competitive,” said George Lee, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. “But the trade-off is that younger employees are paying the price right now.”

    How Big Could the Disruption Get?

    Goldman Sachs research estimates that 6% to 7% of U.S. workers could lose their jobs to AI automation in a baseline scenario. But the pace of disruption depends heavily on how quickly companies adopt the technology.

    A gradual, decade-long rollout could soften the blow. A faster wave—triggered by rapid AI breakthroughs or a slowing economy that pressures firms to cut costs—would make the transition far more painful.

    And if researchers achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI), AI that can learn and adapt across any task like a human? The impact would be seismic. “There’s no doubt that in an AGI world, the scope for job substitution is much larger—and the disruption much deeper,” Briggs warned.

  • Health Care Becomes the Lone Bright Spot in a Stalling U.S. Job Market

    Health Care Becomes the Lone Bright Spot in a Stalling U.S. Job Market

    The U.S. labor market showed further signs of fatigue in July, with health care emerging as the clear—and almost solitary—engine of job growth, according to fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday.

    Health care and social assistance added 73,300 jobs in July, by far the largest gain of any sector. If private education is grouped in, as some economists prefer, the tally rises to nearly 79,000. That means virtually all of last month’s 73,000 nonfarm payroll gains came from health-related fields. Without them, the jobs report would have tipped into negative territory.

    “It’s almost a no-hire, no-fire job market,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “Health care and social assistance are doing the heavy lifting, while other areas look frozen.”

    Adding to concerns, previous months were sharply revised lower: June’s initially strong report was cut to just 14,000 jobs, down from 147,000, while May slid to 19,000 from 144,000. Together, those revisions signal a much weaker hiring trend than originally thought.

    Still, some pockets of strength remain. Within health care, ambulatory services added 34,000 jobs and hospitals gained 16,000. Social assistance—particularly in individual and family services—rose by 21,000. Retail trade ranked a distant second with 15,700 jobs, followed closely by financial activities at 15,000.

    Most other industries, however, contracted. Professional and business services shed 14,000 jobs, government payrolls fell by 10,000, manufacturing lost 11,000, and wholesale trade slipped by nearly 8,000.

    “This report absolutely raises a red flag,” Hamrick warned. With another jobs report due before the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, economists say all eyes are now on whether the latest slowdown proves temporary—or signals a deeper cooling in the U.S. economy.

  • Germany’s Inflation Cools Sharply, but Tariffs Keep Economic Clouds on the Horizon

    Germany’s Inflation Cools Sharply, but Tariffs Keep Economic Clouds on the Horizon

    Germany’s inflation rate eased more than expected in July, offering a rare dose of relief for Europe’s largest economy as it struggles with sluggish growth and trade uncertainty.

    Data released Thursday by the statistics office Destatis showed consumer prices rising just 1.8%, slipping below economists’ forecasts of 1.9% and down from June’s 2% reading. That drop pushed inflation under the European Central Bank’s 2% target, signaling what some analysts are calling a clear disinflationary trend.

    Core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — held steady at 2.7%, while services inflation ticked lower, easing from 3.3% in June to 3.1% in July.

    “This data suggests Germany is currently in a phase of disinflation,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. “We expect headline inflation to remain below, but close to, the 2% mark in the months ahead.”

    The figures arrive just as economists weigh the broader consequences of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have already reshaped trade flows between the U.S. and Europe. Under a deal struck last week, EU goods face 15% tariffs when exported to the United States. Analysts say it’s still unclear whether companies will lower prices in the eurozone to absorb lost U.S. demand or raise them domestically to offset shrinking profits.

    Germany’s economy, heavily dependent on exports, is showing signs of strain. Fresh GDP figures released Wednesday confirmed the economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, reversing a modest 0.3% gain in the first quarter.

    With inflation cooling but growth faltering, the data underscores the fragile balance Germany must maintain — navigating weaker domestic demand, rising global trade tensions, and questions about how long its industrial base can hold firm under tariff pressure.